The Odds of Winning a Lottery Prize Are Much Longer Than You Think

Lottery is everywhere: It’s on television, radio and billboards; people talk about it in coffee shops and on the subway. It’s easy to see why people get drawn to it: For just a few bucks you can take your chance on becoming rich and famous. “Lottery marketing campaigns expertly capitalize on fear of missing out – FOMO,” says consumer psychologist Adam Ortman. They use stories of prior winners and their newfound wealth to make winning seem attainable and life-changing.

But the odds of winning a lottery prize are far longer than most of us realize. Lottery prizes are generated by ticket sales, and the more tickets sold, the larger the jackpot. The numbers are then drawn at random. Some players choose their own numbers, but most opt for Quick Picks — the computer selects a random set of numbers. The rules of probability dictate that you cannot increase your chances of winning by playing more frequently or buying more tickets for the same drawing. Each lottery ticket has its own independent probability, which does not change based on how often you play or how many other tickets are purchased for that same drawing.

State governments run the lotteries as businesses and aim to maximize revenues. Their promotional strategies rely on the notion that state government needs additional revenue in order to deliver services to the public. This argument has been particularly effective in times of economic stress, when states are considering tax increases or cuts to social safety net programs. But even in good economic times, lotteries have been successful at convincing the public to spend their money.